Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), an English clergyman, is credited as the author of “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.” Published posthumously in 1763, the paper set out ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

First, we need to estimate the pre-test probability that asymptomatic Massachusetts residents have Covid-19. We know that in the state approximately 2% of all tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that ...